Big Tech Thermometer

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Objective summary

Several stocks are extended; retests look more attractive than chasing.

Green zone0
Neutral0
Extended0

Objective score

Technical setup, momentum, valuation and earnings risk in one objective score.

No price target and no personal advice; use it as a watchlist filter, not as a buy order.

Score guide

Green means technically interesting or fundamentally healthy. Orange means wait for confirmation. Red usually means extended, weak trend, overbought or deteriorating fundamentals.

Green: near or below a key average Orange: neutral Red: strongly extended
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Monthly

Fundamentals - earnings & valuation

Technical condition shows how stretched the move is; fundamentals show whether earnings growth still supports the valuation. A strong trend becomes fragile when expectations start to fall.

Forward earnings momentum

Not today’s earnings, but the direction of expectations.

  • Green: analysts are raising earnings estimates.
  • Orange: expectations are stabilizing.
  • Red: three months of downward revisions.

Trigger: forward earnings rolling over is a catalyst, not a condition.

PEG-thermometer

Forward P/E divided by expected three-year earnings growth.

  • < 1.5: healthy.
  • 1,5-2,5: warm.
  • > 2.5: euphoric.

Interpretation: high multiples are acceptable as long as earnings growth keeps up.

Fundamentals keep narratives honest. Big bubbles rarely break only because valuations are high; they break when the market realizes expected earnings growth is no longer achievable. Technicals confirm, macro accelerates, but earnings ultimately decide whether the trend is durable.

Theory

  • RSI below 30: often oversold. It can be interesting, but only if the company remains fundamentally sound. Sometimes it is oversold because something is genuinely wrong.
  • RSI 30-40: often a better buy zone for quality companies. Weak enough for a retest, but not necessarily panic.
  • RSI 40-55: neutral. Suitable for phased buying when price is also near the 50-day or 200-day average.
  • RSI 60-70: strong momentum. Fine if already owned, less ideal for a new entry.
  • RSI above 70: overbought. Usually better to wait for cooling.
  • Price above the 50-day and 200-day averages: the stock is technically in an uptrend.
  • Price pulls back to the 50-day average: often a normal retest. This can be an initial entry zone for quality companies.
  • Price pulls back to the 200-day average: deeper correction. It can be attractive, but requires more caution.
  • Price far above the 50-day and 200-day averages: the stock is extended. Not necessarily bad, but less attractive for a full new entry.
  • Price below the 200-day average: the long trend is weaker. Prefer waiting for recovery or buying only very gradually.

Entry moments: the setup is strongest when several layers are green or favorably neutral at the same time: price near the 50d or 200d, RSI around 35-55, green setup score, no immediate earnings risk, and healthy or improving fundamentals. For quality companies, a retest of the 50d is often a first entry; a move toward the 200d is more interesting but needs more fundamental checks.

Accumulation: accumulating means building gradually, not buying a full position at once. It fits a stock you want to own or already own when signals are still mixed: orange setup score, neutral RSI, price between the 50d and 200d, or strong fundamentals without full technical confirmation. Practically: small tranche now, another on a retest, and only size up after confirmation above the 200d or a clear golden cross.

Exit moments: selling usually means trimming or taking profit, not automatically selling everything. A stronger exit signal appears when RSI above 70 combines with price near the 3m high, weak volume after a rise, 50d below 200d, or deteriorating earnings/PEG. A clear risk rule: price below 200d and red fundamentals means do not add; reassess the position.